Too Close To Call.

Scotland is apparently on a knife edge with support for independence on a par with support for the Union. Or is it?

Mr Smith is very sceptical of the results of this poll. He still doesn't believe that in the current economic climate Scots would actually vote for independence, and as the uncertainty increases over the next few months he believes that will become even less likely.

"SUPPORT FOR independence has hardened in the face of the global recession, despite Labour predictions that the crisis would see more Scots turning to the Union for protection. The latest TNS System Three survey for the Sunday Herald found support for leaving the union rose three points during the last quarter, while opposition to a separate Scottish state fell to its lowest level since the poll began 18 months ago. The findings suggest the public has ignored Labour warnings that a breakaway Scotland would be doomed to join Iceland in the "arc of insolvency".

Never-endum.

Mr Smith admires Mr Salmond's optimism, but Mr Smith believes the SNP have no chance of winning a referendum on independence in the foreseeable future, so what excuse will Oor Eck come up with for not having one? We will have to wait and see,

"Alex Salmond is to press ahead with plans for an independence referendum bill next year despite the economic downturn and the collapse of Scottish banking. The first minister said Barack Obama’s victory in the American election demonstrates that people can vote for change during turbulent times."

No offence to Mr Salmond, but he ain't no Barack Obama, and more to the point, Gordon Brown, whatever his faults, is no George Walker Bush.

Loser.

Mr Smith thinks the fundamental point isn't that there are "weaknesses" in the Scottish economy. It is the fact that an independent Scotland would have access to a fraction of the financial resources available to the UK Government at a time of economic recession and massive public debt. That is why the SNP won't win an independence referendum in 2010.

"A PROMINENT Nationalist has called on Alex Salmond to abandon plans for a referendum in 2010 because of the economic crisis. In the New Statesman, the media commentator and academic Rob Brown, a former media editor at Scotland on Sunday and a member of the SNP, argues that the financial meltdown has exposed weaknesses in the Scottish economy and prevailing attitudes among the Scottish population."

Union City Blues.

Interesting political developments following the £30 billion buyout of two "Scottish" banks by the UK Treasury and taxpayer.

Mr Smith isn't an economist, unlike Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond MSP who used to work for RBS, one of the banks bailed out, but even he can see that the UK government covering a country ten times the size of one covered by a possible independent Scottish government would have an easier time coming up with £30 billion. Mr Salmond seems to be suggesting otherwise, but Mr Smith thinks that the current economic crisis has severely dented the SNP's plans for independence.

The last two week's have demonstrated more clearly than anything else the benefits of being part of the Union, whatever the downsides.

"Prime Minister Gordon Brown said yesterday an independent Scotland could not have bailed out its struggling banks. He said the financial strength of the United Kingdom made a £37bn capital injection possible for banks including the Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS."

Words.

"THE SNP'S flagship plan for an independence referendum went through more than two dozen separate versions and is still a work-in-progress, ministers have admitted. Although only four pages long, the referendum chapter that appeared last August as part of Alex Salmond's National Conversation was repeatedly rewritten, going through 26 different drafts before being signed off with civil servants."

And who said gaining independence would be easy?

Goodbye Scottish Secretary?

"THE post of Scottish Secretary will be scrapped after more than 300 years. The role, which was established in 1703, will be replaced by a Secretary of State for the Nations. It was reported today the move came as a consequence of the IRA being declared redundant as a paramilitary organisation."

Pity. It's the loss of a bit of Scotland's political history, but more significantly it would appear that the current government seems to be gradually surrendering what's left of its role in the governance of Scotland. That can only lead to increasing the odds of Scottish independence being achieved, and sooner rather than later.

The Pharoah.

So, "Mohamed al Fayed says that he will settle permanently in the Highlands if Scotland becomes an independent nation."

That'll be one more reason for not voting for independence for Scotland then.

Branching Out.

From the Scotsman ... a cartoon tells ten thousand words.

Part of the Union.

Really worrying headline in today's Scotsman .... "Brown leaves the future of Union in Wendy's hands."

God help us. If we have to rely on Wendy, the 300 year old Union has already bitten the dust.

Call My Bluff.

Another surprise from Oor Wendy.

"LABOUR leader Wendy Alexander backed a referendum on Scottish independence, in a major U-turn intended to call Alex Salmond's "bluff"."

Albeit that the Labour people will only support a one question referendum with yes or no as the answer which they SNP don't want. A very risky strategy, and Mr Smith suspects that the longer we go until a referendum, the riskier Wendy's approach will become, especially with the SNP securing 45% support in the most recent opinion poll. But why did Labour and Wendy spend the best part of the last year, indeed forever, arguing against an independence referendum only to now agree to one when no-one really wanted them to? It looks a bit weak.

Not so much "Call My Bluff" as "Risk".

Poll Position.

"INDEPENDENCE has taken a dramatic lead in a new opinion poll on Scotland's constitutional future. An exclusive TNS System Three poll has found that 41% of Scots want the SNP government to negotiate an independence settlement, compared to 40% who are opposed to breaking up the UK."

Mr Smith still thinks that even if there was referendum the Scottish people wouldn't back independence for Scotland. But Westminster Scottish MPs must be starting to give the possibility some thought. Where does a Westminster MP go if he can't go to Westminster any more? Holyrood?

But who will take the chequered flag?

In the Soup.

And from the Herald Diary again, "Former Scots Tory leader David McLetchie has always been a firm supporter of the Union. Imagine, then, his horror, when at a dinner to celebrate Scotland Week in Ottawa, he was reassured that the man who masterminded Canada's Conservatives to their recent victory was firmly for Scottish independence. "His face was nearly in his soup," fellow diner Alex Neil MSP told The Diary."

You wouldn't want to eat a lot of meals in the company of Alex Neil MSP. Ruins the digestion.

Uncle Salmond.

Mr Smith read Douglas Fraser's article in today's Herald with puzzlement.

"Scotland now ‘like US colonies in 1770s’ ... Alex Salmond went to the home of one of America's most revered founding fathers yesterday to invoke the spirit of revolution against rule from London. The First Minister visited Monticello, where Thomas Jefferson lived, and delivered a speech at Virginia University, which compared Scotland's position now with that of the 13 American colonies in 1776."

Now Mr Smith's recollection of US history may be a bit rusty but he's not sure that the view of most people in the US in the 1770s would have been to support independence for the Colonies from Britain. He suspects the bulk of support was for an even more limited form of devolution than Scotland currently has, centred around the concept of "no taxation without representation," pretty much the reverse of what Scotland has at the moment, where at Holyrood arguably we have "representation without taxation."

Think the parallels between Scotland now and America in the 1770s are pretty limited. Think you need to get out more First Minister or get a new speech writer.

3-2-1.

Using proportional representation to ensure that our elected representatives are just that representative makes sense, but using it to decided Scotland's constitional future is really taking it a stage too far.

"ALEX Salmond yesterday outlined plans to take Scotland out of the UK without a clear majority in favour of independence. He announced plans for are ferendum using "preference voting". The system, similar to the STV method used in council elections, allows people to rank their choices in order of preference by voting "1,2,3". And, mathematically, it means Scotland could split from the rest of the UK if just 26 per cent made independence their top choice."

A simple yes or no to independence must be used, otherwise the SNP Government risk their plans for an independence referendum ending up in the Dusty Bin.

Exit?

"FIRST MINISTER Alex Salmond's plan for a referendum on independence has received a boost after a new poll showed a surge in support for a separate Scottish state. The latest snapshot has revealed that 40% of the population want the Scottish government to negotiate independence with the UK government, a figure that is up 5% in three months. This contrasts with 44% of people who do not want Scotland to pull out of the UK, which is 6% down from August. "

Mr Smith isn't convinced of the merits of independence. He is also not convinced of the merits of the status quo, especially given the almost universal lack of political leadership which is being displayed by all of Scotland's politicians.

We deserve better.

Mr McLaughlin.

Given his previously declared American predilections, Mr Smith highlights the "prediction" from US American political commentator of longstanding John McLaughlin on his programme the McLaughlin Group that "in this coming year, 2008, Scotland will declare its independence from the United Kingdom ...."

This is probably not unrelated to recent visits by Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond to the US, but Mr Smith feels obliged to point out the prediction of the self same Mr McLaughlin in advance of May's Scottish Parliament elections during his programme broadcast the weekend of 29-29 April 2007 that "I predict that nationalists in Scotland will fail in their attempts to create an independent nation."

.... Er ..... emmm .... Mr Smith thinks he got something wrong somewhere ...

Scotland Free ... by 2017.

So, Mr Smith reads that the latest SNP target for Scotland achieving Independence is now 2017. It makes one of the previous targets of "Scotland Free by 1993" as once espoused by SNP MSP Alex Neil look positively ambitious by comparison, given that the new target means it could be ten years before we achieve the Nationalistic shibboleth.

Welcome to the "new politics." Why do something in a few years when you could take a decade, but it makes Mr Smith wonder how these comments sit with the SNP Government's pledge to have a referendum on independence within the current session of the Scottish Parliament: it clearly doesn't.

Hey Mickey.

Mr Smith notes that former Scottish Conservative Minister, now peer, Lord Michael Forsyth of Drumlean, has apparently backed plans by the SNP administration at Holyrood to hold a referendum on independence, not because he supports the idea of independence but because he feels that having one sooner rather than later will take the momentum out of the issue.

Now, its not for Mr Smith to question Lord Fosyth's political judgement which has been gleaned from serving in some of the top positions of Scottish government pre-devolution, but it says a great deal about Scotland's "new politics" that we have former arch opponents of devolution, now at least prepared to countenance the idea of a referendum of independence, even if it to bolster their own unionist position.

Sampling opinion.

Mr Smith noted press reports of the latest Scottish opinion poll which suggests that, at the same time as support for the SNP has increased fifteen points to 48% since the Scottish Parliament elections in May when they seized control of the Scottish Executive, support for independence has fallen from 51% to just 31%.

Now Mr Smith has no reason to doubt the veracity of the opinion poll's findings, but if they are to be believed, then it makes clear that Scottish public opinion is about as volatile as it has ever been in modern Scottish political history, and about the only consolation that politicians of all parties can take is that they have just fought an election, and won't have to do so again until May 2011. Otherwise MSPs would all be quaking in their boots at trying to get them themselves elected given the swings in voting intentions which this opinion poll suggests would be likely to take place. MPs however may not be so lucky is a "snap" general election is called by new Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Mr Smith also notes that strangely support for independence is greatest in Fife, at 43%. Perhaps the solution would be to give the "Kingdom of Fife" independence and then Scotland wouldn't have to bother.