Friday 10 August 2007

Sampling opinion.


Mr Smith noted press reports of the latest Scottish opinion poll which suggests that, at the same time as support for the SNP has increased fifteen points to 48% since the Scottish Parliament elections in May when they seized control of the Scottish Executive, support for independence has fallen from 51% to just 31%.

Now Mr Smith has no reason to doubt the veracity of the opinion poll's findings, but if they are to be believed, then it makes clear that Scottish public opinion is about as volatile as it has ever been in modern Scottish political history, and about the only consolation that politicians of all parties can take is that they have just fought an election, and won't have to do so again until May 2011. Otherwise MSPs would all be quaking in their boots at trying to get them themselves
elected given the swings in voting intentions which this opinion poll suggests would be likely to take place. MPs however may not be so lucky is a "snap" general election is called by new Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Mr Smith also notes that strangely support for independence is greatest in Fife, at 43%. Perhaps the solution would be to give the "Kingdom of Fife" independence and then Scotland wouldn't have to bother.

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